December New Glass Orders Finalised, Joint Efforts to Refrain from Price Cuts Lead to Price Increase [SMM Analysis]

On December 10, the new glass order prices are as follows: 2.0mm single-layer coating (11.5-12 yuan/m²); 2.0mm double-layer coating (12.5-13 yuan/m²); 3.2mm single-layer coating (19.5-20.5 yuan/m²); 3.2mm double-layer coating (20.5-21.5 yuan/m²). Currently in December, some domestic module enterprises have finalised new order prices, with mainstream transaction prices for glass rising to 12 yuan/m², up 0.5 yuan/m² from November.

Specifically, regarding the price trend, the overall domestic glass price range in December remains unchanged, but the transaction center has shifted upwards. Previously, most module enterprises maintained a wait-and-see approach and were conservative about raising glass quotes. No transactions were made after the new order prices were announced at the end of November. However, as time progressed, the glass enterprises' December quotes became more uniform, with no low-price bidding occurring. Some module enterprises faced resistance in price suppression and began to make just-in-time procurement, leading to the mainstream transaction center rising to 12 yuan/m², with very few low-price transactions in the market.

Regarding inventory, domestic glass industry inventory began to decrease in November, with leading enterprise inventories also showing a significant decline. The days of inventories dropped to around 32 days, and the days of inventories for second-tier mainstream glass enterprises fell to just over 20 days, easing the inventory pressure.

Supply side, domestic PV glass monthly production in November continued to decrease, down 8.4% MoM from October. The operating rate of producers for domestic PV glass decreased in November, mainly due to weakened demand from modules, causing a tense supply sentiment. Cold repair capacity increased during the month, with leading enterprises reducing daily melting capacity by 3,000 mt/day, and further reductions are expected. It is anticipated that nearly 5,000 mt/day of daily melting capacity will undergo cold repair in December, and glass production is expected to continue decreasing in December.

In summary, for the price forecast for the remainder of December, SMM believes prices will remain stable. Although there is an expected decline in demand as module enterprises approach the holiday season, the recent expansion in the scale of domestic glass production cuts will likely maintain a balanced supply and demand situation. Additionally, the high natural gas prices will strongly support glass costs, leading to a predominantly sideways price movement.